Let’s talk about: Ukraine and russia
A Ukrainian perspective from the ground
Join our up-coming talk with Valeriia Hesse
Sunday, February 27, 2022 - 11 AM PST
Valeriia Hesse will discuss the current situation on the ground in Ukraine, how it got there and provide personal and professional insights on how people are responding to the tensions. She will also share resources and ways to stay informed and involved in this critical and unfolding situation.
Valeriia Hesse is a non-resident fellow at the Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University's Odesa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP), Ukraine, and a consultant at Atomic Reporters, Austria. She also has experience as an intern at the Division of Concepts and Planning at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and a research intern at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC. Valeriia is a Fulbright scholar and obtained her Master’s degree in International Policy from the University of Georgia (USA)
Synopsis
Ukraine: The Russian Invasion and Beyond - Presentation by Valeriia Hesse
Valeriia Hesse left her hometown of Odessa only one week ago - days before the Russian invasion began to start her work as a visiting fellow at James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey. Hesse has many years of professional experience, especially on the issues of non-proliferation, a central topic for Russia-Ukraine relations. Her family and friends are still in Ukraine and we are honored that she is made time for us during this difficult time
In order to understand the nature of this crisis, the recent historical context must be taken into account. Following the Ukrainian Revolution of 1917-1922, the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic was established as one the earliest republics of the Soviet Union. After a long period of russification, warfare, famine, and numerous attempts by insurgent Ukrainian forces to fight for independence, Ukraine finally attained national independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
22 years later, political turmoil over Ukraine’s geopolitical positioning arguably lay the foundations for the current crisis. On September 18th, 2013, the Ukrainian government made a decision to sign the Association Agreement with the EU, moving further away from Russian ties. However, on October 27th and November 9th, two secret emergency meetings were held between the presidents of Ukraine (Victor Yanukovich) and Russia (Vladimir Putin). On October 21st, the Ukrainian government suspended the signing process, triggering mass protests and riots by pro-Europeans, also known as “Euromaidans”. This movement, spearheaded by the younger generations of Ukrainians, was centered in Independence Square in the capital city of Ukraine and expanded to cities and localities across the country.
Simultaneously, a much smaller movement against Ukraine’s aligning with the European Union, called “antimaidan” appeared in many cities and gained more visibility in the Eastern and Southern regions of Ukraine. At the same time, there were numerous confirmed instances that people were paid to attend antimaidan protests.
The situation quickly deteriorated after November 30th, 2013, when Ukrainian special forces “Berkut”, beat up students in an attempt to make them go away. After this, serious clashes began between Berkut and “Euromaidan” protesters and continued into early 2014, resulting in the deaths of over a hundred protesters.
Violent confrontations came to an end when Victor Yanukovich fled following the storming of the Presidential Palace on February 21, 2014. These events spanning from November 2013 to February 2014 came to be known as the “Revolution of Dignity”.
The Russian Federation denounced the new Ukrainian government, calling it an “armed seizure of power”. Claiming to be acting on behalf of the security of Russian citizens and Russian-speaking Ukrainians, Russia occupied the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in March of 2014 in a hybrid attack by military men in unmarked uniforms - “the green men”. At the same time, Russia had initiated a massive media campaign claiming that Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine were being oppressed by the Ukrainian government. In large part, this media campaign was the beginning of Russia’s hybrid warfare in Ukraine that drew heavily on broader misinformation tactics used to paint the Ukrainian government as a fascist, russophobic “violent military junta”. These tactics propagated a slew of misconceptions, not only inside the eastern regions but also abroad. Hesse points, in particular, to the conflating of bi-lingual populations as bi-cultural - a perception that Hesse stresses is an incorrect characterization of Russian speaking Ukrainians.
However, Ukrainian government attempts at abating a so-called “language law” adopted in 2012 (granted a language regional status if 10% of citizens in it considered it their native tongue) contributed to growing fears in the Russian-speaking communities in Eastern Ukraine who began rioting in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Simultaneously, euromaidans in the same regions continued. With significant Russian support, new republics were declared in both regions, which the Ukrainian national government initiated the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) to perserve the country’s territorial integrity. The clashes in the regions resulted in the deaths of over 9,000 civilians and soldiers until September 5, 2014, according to the UN. Since 2014, Russia has continued its occupation of these regions with over 6,000 Russian troops on the group and nearly 40,000 additional personnel in two hybrid army corps.
On June 6th, 2014, the first Normandy format meeting took place. The presidents of Ukraine and Russia, with the presence of Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel, agreed to ceasefire negotiations. However, active and severe military actions broke out in the conflict region until the end of August.
On September 5th, the parties met in Minsk in the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) format to
discuss the settlement of the situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The sides – Ukraine, the RF, and the OSCE – signed the preliminary protocol with 12 conditions of the de-escalation (the representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions were also present), including:
decentralization of power
fixation of the confrontation line
retirement of heavy munitions for 15 km from the line (create a security zone of 30 km)
Nevertheless, in autumn of 2014, the eastern territories conducted elections, breaching the terms of the agreement. These elections were recognized neither by Ukraine, nor by the OSCE. The armistice was frequently being breached. In January of 2015, a conflict broke out with renewed intensity. Militants went on the offensive near the Donetsk airport and after a long assault managed to take it on January 21.
On February 12th, 2015, after a long night of negotiations, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany agreed on a new Minsk-2 agreement, providing for a full ceasefire on February 15th (though on February 18th militants took control of Debaltseve). Terms of the agreement included:
the gradual withdrawal of weapons from the demarcation line
exchange of prisoners
the beginning of political dialogue
holding of local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation
amnesty for the participants of the conflict
special order of self-governance in parts of Donbas and taking control over entire territory and border by Ukraine after the elections and the adoption of the constitutional reform
From then until 2022, low-scale conflict has persisted with none of the above terms being fulfilled. Russia began concentrating troops on the borders in April of 2021 allegedly as a “defensive reaction” to the U.S./NATO Defender Europe exercises, which had nothing to do with Ukraine (took place in the Balkans). Russia has claimed that NATO promised Russia it would not expand after the Cold War, despite its stated Open Door Policy. However, there has never been a legally binding document certifying that. In 1997, Bill Clinton consistently refused Boris Yeltsin’s offer of a “Gentlemen’s Agreement” that no former Soviet Republics would enter NATO.
Ukraine’s constitution has made explicit reference to it’s desire to join NATO since early 2019. During the negotiations in December 2021, many Ukrainians were relieved to hear that NATO did not concede to the Russian demands to forever ban Ukraine and Georgia from NATO. Such an agreement would be a denial of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Surprising many around the world, the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24th, 2022 with Russian forces entering Kharkiv, Kakhovka, and Chernobyl - causing significant fears about the potential use of nuclear weapons. Under the threat of such an overpowering military force, hundreds of thousands of citizens are attempting to flee the country. However, thus far, Ukrainian forces, with the help and support of the civilian population, have, against all odds, managed to significantly slow down the incursion of Russian forces. While many believed the president would likely flee the country, he has made a strong point of remaining in Kyiv as all Ukrainian men 18-60 have been called into battle. Over the past week, Ukraine’s military of 260,000 has increased by an additional 100,000.
Russia has warned international forces not to get involved, while many European countries are now shipping weapons and military assistance to Ukraine, raising concerns that this conflict may indeed expand beyond the borders of Ukraine. The Russian nuclear threat is very prominent and has helped prevent external actors from direct involvement thus far. Nuclear weapons have been a very destabilizing factor in the events of fall 2021-winter 2022.
Meanwhile, Russia has continued its misinformation campaigns, claiming that Ukraine should be “de-nazified”. However, Hesse explains that, while we can find neo-nazi groups in almost any country in the world, these groups have no outweighed power within the Ukrainian population, and that claims to the contrary are purely propanganda.
This unprecedented move by Putin is in clear violation of international law and nuclear non-proliferation agreements, forcing European and western countries to respond with wide reaching sanctions and military aid. Still, the Ukrainian government has offered to engage in negotiations with Russia. While Ukraine could have theoretically offered to end its pursuit of euroatlantic integration, much of the Ukrainian population would have been unlikely to accept such a capitulation under these circumstances: people have been fighting for their freedom of choice since 2013. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that Zelensky moved forward with a request to join the EU on March 1st.
In the midst of this ongoing crisis, Hesse explains short term and long term actions she hopes to see from the international community. She highlights the importance of global protest movements to increase visibility of opposition to Russian actions and solidarity with the Ukrainian people, as well as the need for donations to support the Ukrainian people and military at this critical time.
Furthermore, she stresses the need for information hygiene and critical thinking skills to be taught from a young age, identifying misinformation as one of the key causes of this crisis.
As this tragic situation continues to unfold, Hesse has shared the following resources for anyone wishing to further educate themselves or actively engage in supporting the Ukrainian people.
Resources
Charities and Non-Profits
The charities listed below are registered in the USA and are 501(c)(3) Not-for-Profit organizations. Donations and gifts are tax-deductible to the full extent allowable under IRS regulations:
Ukrainian Congress Committee of America (UCCA): Donate to Humanitarian Effort
Razom for Ukraine: Donate to Tactical medical training and emergency response in Ukraine
Nova Ukraine: Donate to Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
Hromada: Donate to children, whose parents gave their lives in the Russian-Ukrainian war in Eastern Ukraine.
News, Articles and Live Updates:
The latest Tweets from The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent)
Telegram UKRAINE NOW threat
NEXTA Twitter European Twitter Account
Selection of articles:
Live English language updates:
Other readers: